Polen Capital Emerging Markets ex China Growth Third Quarter 2025 Commentary


Emerging Market ex China equity returns, as measured by the MSCI Emerging Markets ex China Index (the “Index”), were positive over the period, mainly driven by the continued strong performance of Taiwan and South Korea. At a country level, India was the main detractor to the Index return.
Taiwan maintained its position as the Index’s top contributor during the quarter, building on momentum from the previous quarter. The Semiconductor sector remained a key driver, with sustained demand from global AI and data center markets supporting elevated production levels. Investor sentiment was further buoyed by signs of easing trade tensions with the U.S., helping to stabilize export forecasts and reinforce Taiwan’s key role in the global tech supply chain. South Korea also delivered robust gains. The country’s equity market benefited from continued strength in consumer electronics and automotive exports, with global demand showing resilience despite macroeconomic uncertainties. Optimism around the new administration’s reform agenda persisted, with market participants increasingly pricing in potential improvements to corporate governance and capital market accessibility, factors that could help narrow the long-standing “Korea discount.”
In contrast, India was the Index’s main detractor during the quarter. The market faced pressure from a combination of domestic and external headwinds. A weakening rupee and persistent inflation concerns weighed on investor confidence, while foreign outflows intensified amid uncertainty about upcoming fiscal policy decisions. Additionally, underperformance in the Financials and Consumer sectors, both significant Index components, contributed to the drag on returns.
Against this backdrop, the Materials, Information Technology, and Consumer Discretionary sectors performed the best, with Real Estate, Energy, and Health Care the weakest.
Over the period, the Polen Capital Emerging Markets ex China Growth Fund (the “Fund”) returned 2.65 % (market price) and 2.49% (NAV), underperforming the Index, which returned 6.64%.
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Relative underperformance was due to security selection, although sector and country allocation were modest detractors as well.
Security selection was weakest in the Industrials and Information Technology sectors, outweighing stronger selection in Consumer Discretionary and Communication Services. Sector allocation, an output of our bottom-up process, detracted from relative returns, primarily due to the zero weight in the Materials sector and the overweight in the Consumer Discretionary sector.
At a country level, security selection was strongest in Taiwan and Hungary, although it was outweighed by weaker selection in Poland and South Korea. Country allocation, also an output of our bottom-up process, detracted from relative returns, primarily due to our relative underweights in Taiwan and South Korea, although our underweight to the weak Indian market did provide some counterbalance.
The top individual contributors to relative returns over the period were NagaCorp, Accton, and
dLocal. The top contributors to absolute returns were NagaCorp, TSMC, and Accton.
NagaCorp is the monopolist gaming operator in Cambodia with the sole license to run casinos in the country. The company face a challenging recovery post-pandemic as travel in the region was slow to bounce back, particularly for its core clientele of Chinese business travelers. However, the first half of this year marked a turning point, with international arrivals recovering to 99% of 2019 levels and Chinese visitor numbers climbing 50% year-on-year. A new international airport slated to open in the fourth quarter is expected to further accelerate inbound tourism. The resurgence in wealthier business travelers drove nearly 90% growth in Naga’s premium VIP segment, fueling strong margin expansion and a more than fifteen-fold increase in depressed operating profits. Looking forward, the company’s valuation remains attractive, but growth should normalize to pre-pandemic levels in the low-double-digit range. Polen expect returns will be boosted by a resumption in its healthy dividend payout.
Accton, based in Taiwan, is a leading global manufacturer of network switches, other networking equipment, and more recently, a module assembler for AI accelerators. Accton makes critical physical hardware that enables data to travel in, out, and across data centers in the most efficient possible manner. The company benefited from surging global demand for AI infrastructure, which has driven exceptional earnings growth; revenues and income have more than double this year. The evolving market structure to more direct relationships with end customers only seems to be strengthening Accton’s strategic positioning and competitive strengths. Despite its strong performance, the company’s valuation remains undemanding. With the relentless need for faster, more efficient data centers, Polen believe Accton is well-placed to deliver many years of compound growth and attractive shareholder returns.
dLocal, a payments processing company headquartered in Uruguay, continued its strong share price momentum, underpinned by sustained operating momentum. Recent results highlighted continued traction with merchants and material operating leverage in its cost structure. As mentioned over the last two quarters, this is an inflection Polen had anticipated and expect to extend into the next year as new product launches should serve to shore up the company’s net take rate. Longer term, Polen thinks dLocal stands out as a leading player in digital payments in emerging markets, with differentiated capabilities in alternative payment methods and superior authorization rates. Backed by a highly regarded management team, Polen believes it can continue to deliver attractive growth and margin expansion.
The largest individual detractors from relative performance were InPost, Hugel, and our zero weight in Samsung Electronics. The largest detractors from absolute returns were InPost, Hugel, and Dino Polska.
InPost is a Polish logistics company that pioneered the operation of Automated Parcel Machines (APMs) for e-commerce platforms. These machines offer a compelling value proposition: they reduce costs and complexity for merchants, enhance convenience and flexibility for consumers, and help governments and communities by lowering emissions and easing urban congestion. InPost commands a dominant 70% share of the APM market in its domestic market of Poland and is actively expanding overseas across continental Europe and the UK. While recent earnings growth turned negative as it digested a large acquisition of a loss-making logistics company in the UK, Polen view this as a temporary integration headwind. The strategic shift from traditional to-door delivery to APMs should unlock significant efficiencies and margin improvement. With e-commerce penetration growing, APM penetration increasing, and new market entries underway, Polen believes InPost is well-positioned for a multi-year growth trajectory. Meanwhile its margins, returns on capital, and free cashflow should normalize over the next three quarters, potentially setting the stage for renewed expansion and long-term shareholder value creation.
Hugel is a medical aesthetics company and the South Korean leader in botulinum toxin and hyaluronic acid fillers used for facial contouring. The botulinum toxin market, which accounts for 54% of sales, has historically been highly concentrated globally. While the domestic landscape is more fragmented, Hugel has maintained its leadership position for the last nine consecutive years. Following a period of extremely strong performance, the company’s most recent quarterly net profit modestly undershot expectations, prompting a period of share price consolidation. However, Hugel’s attractive valuation, cost-efficient production, and consistent track record of execution present a compelling investment case. Looking ahead, new regulatory approvals in the U.S. are expected to accelerate Hugel’s international expansion, reinforcing its growth trajectory and enhancing its global competitiveness.
Samsung Electronics is the second largest position in the Index but a zero weight in the Fund. After a challenging 2024, its share price recovered strongly to rise to an all-time high during the third quarter. This rebound was driven by a turnaround in the fortunes of its semiconductor business, which benefited from improving memory chip pricing and renewed demand for AI- related components. Additionally, the launch of new flagship smartphones was well received, and the announcement of a multi-billion-dollar chip supply agreement with Tesla served as a further catalyst for improved business sentiment.
During the quarter, Polen made four new investments, into Indian hotel operator Indian Hotels, record label Saregama India, and insurer ICICI Lombard, as well as repurchasing a stake in Brazilian pharmacy operator Raia Drogasil, previously exited in December 2024. Polen also exited their investments in the South African discount clothes retailer Mr. Price, Indian IT services provider Infosys, and Mexican conglomerate FEMSA.
Polen continues to apply the same long-standing philosophy and process of looking for the highest quality growth businesses in the Emerging Markets ex China asset class. These companies have structural growth opportunities, deep competitive advantages, self-financed growth and robust balance sheets, and are proven stewards of capital. Polen always seek to own undervalued businesses relative to their long-term compounding potential. Polen believes that these types of businesses will outperform over the long term and will enable our clients to earn above-average returns on their investments.
Today’s backdrop of ever-changing tariffs and geopolitical disruption are challenging for asset prices, investment, and long-term economic planning. However, Polen continues to be optimistic about the long-term future of Emerging Markets ex China, home to 57% of the world’s population today. In many cases, more orthodox economic policy has left the balance sheet of their economies much healthier than their Developed counterparts, which should, among other things, enable greater economic capacity to respond to geopolitical and macroeconomic turmoil. Meanwhile, the Index trades at a discount to its Developed Market counterparts, implying to us it is attractively valued. Generally, global equity index funds have been underweight Emerging Markets for a number of years, with current allocations about -30% below the region’s weight in the MSCI All Country World Index, per Baillie Gifford. With the low absolute weight in Emerging Markets by said funds, small changes to global asset allocations have the potential to meaningfully lift the capital allocated to the emerging markets asset class. Moreover, valuations for quality businesses are at par with the wider index, implying to Polen that they no longer have to pay a premium for the types of businesses in which they invest.
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